The harmful impact that Ortega would search within the United States by opening the border to Cubans

Daniel Ortega’s new order to grant a free visa to Cubans who wish to attain the nation, not solely opens the borders of Nicaragua to islanders who arrive for “shopping tourism,” nevertheless it might exacerbate the migratory disaster going through the United States, he values. a migration specialist. This open-door coverage shortens the land route that to date hundreds of Cubans journey to succeed in US soil irregularly seeking the “American dream.”

For his half, the Republican senator from Florida, Marco Rubio, cataloged the choice of the federal government of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo to ascertain a “free visa” for all Cuban residents who want to enter Nicaragua, so as “to promote exchange commercial, tourism and humanitarian family relationship ”as a“ hostile act ”.

Although Ortega’s current strategy is not clear – who in the past relaxed visa requirements for Cubans to stimulate the flow of travelers to the country in the midst of the pandemic to do a type of tourism that would inject foreign currency into the clothing trade economy. , footwear and electronic articles and personal use, goods in high demand and desired by Cubans for self-consumption and sale – the international political climate after the questioned and considered illegitimate elections where he was proclaimed president for the fourth consecutive term, fuels tensions and puts in check a delicate diplomatic, political and commercial relationship with the United States.

Hostile act

Rubio considers and warns that the Ortega regime “helps the Cuban dictatorship to eradicate visa necessities to instigate mass migration to our southern border,” due to facilitating the route that thousands of Cubans who seek to enter the United States travel so far . He believes that the “free visa” for Cubans will increase their probabilities of reaching US soil.

Also learn: Who wins and who loses with the huge purchases of Cubans in Nicaragua? Chamber of Commerce offers its studying to legion of caribbean

The US senator urged the Joe Biden authorities to reply instantly: “This summer I expressed my concern and warned that the Cuban regime would use mass migration as a weapon after the historic July 11 protests. The Biden administration must respond quickly and take this for what it is: a hostile act, “said Rubio in statements to Univision.

Republican congresswoman María Elvira Salazar, through the Radio Mambí program, said that the Nicaraguan government’s decision seeks to “create chaos on the border,” in an obvious act of revenge.

“This is a new initiative that shows that Daniel (Ortega), very intelligently, is telling Cuba, ‘We are going to create chaos on the border, and I am going to give you the step to do it,'” Salazar said.

Dangerous provocation or desperation to negotiate?

The Ortega regime – through the Ministry of the Interior (Migob) – established that the free visa decision was given due to the high demand for visa applications received by Cuban citizens, with relatives in Nicaragua, to the General Directorate of Migration and Foreigners (DGME ). Since January 2019, the regime had made the requirements to travel to Nicaragua more flexible for Cuban citizens, including them in “migratory category B”, which allowed them to obtain a tourist visa for a 30-day stay in Managua.

In the opinion of specialists, this action could have been taken to force the Joe Biden administration to establish some type of negotiation with Nicaragua; or to “punish” her for the recent sanctions she applied to the country after the electoral farce of November 7 took place.

In any of the cases it is considered risky, since it could worsen the already deteriorated relationships; Since November 2018, President Donald Trump, through an executive order, declared the Ortega regime: “a threat to the national security of the United States.”

“This can be a measure of pressure but also of revenge. And obviously the migration crisis is going to get worse. The first impact would be received by Mexico because it has assumed the role of a military wall on the southern border of the country. But then the problem will be for the United States, ”warns Rubén Figueroa, coordinator of the Mesoamerican Migrant Movement of Mexico.

Also learn: Donald Trump declares the Nicaraguan regime a “threat to the national security of the United States”

Using irregular migration as a political weapon

In a phone interview with LA PRENSA, Figueroa explains that lately a number of nations have used the opening of their borders as a measure of strain to acquire extra monetary help; others have performed it as political revenge. Ortega could possibly be enjoying each playing cards recklessly.

In 2020, the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, opened the best way for hundreds of Syrian refugees, to ask for extra financial help from the European Union (EU). So did Mexico lately, by permitting the displacement of some 15,000 Haitian migrants. With this, he pressured the United States to finance the Sembrando Vidas venture in Central America. “Then it may be that Daniel Ortega uses the opening of the border to Cubans as political revenge,” says Figueroa.

Eliseo Núñez, a former liberal congressman and analyst who’s in exile, agrees with Figueroa that Ortega follows the identical script as different nations.

“Indeed that is what he is looking for, he is copying the same policy of Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus with the Afghan and Syrian emigrants to put pressure on Europe. It is the same model, it does not have any change, it is to use emigration as a geopolitical weapon, “says Núñez.

You can also read: Regimen orteGuista leaves the door open for Cubans

Another analyst, who prefers to omit his name for fear of retaliation, adds that Ortega could indeed be seeking some kind of negotiation with the Biden administration, since for years he has provided the United States with the service of stopping migration. For him, no Cuban will stay in Nicaragua “enduring hunger”, so he considers that he may seek “to enter into talks.”

General opening

In the opinion of specialists, if the measure were aimed at benefiting specific groups of Cubans who want to visit Nicaragua, it would not have been disclosed as it was done, but would be applied more discreetly. But the truth is that this decision completely reversed the position assumed by Ortega in 2015, when he closed the border to thousands of Cubans who were stranded in Costa Rica, in their attempt to move north; and he expelled almost two thousand who entered the country through the Peñas Blancas border.

But the current “revenge” would be in response to the sanctions that the United States has imposed in the last four years for human rights violations during the public repression that began in 2018; and for those recently imposed by the consummation of the electoral farce of November 7. Specialists warn that the Biden administration will not necessarily respond as Ortega wants.

Biden ignored the process with which Ortega intends to remain in power for the fourth consecutive period; and he barred Ortega, his family and all public and municipal officials from entering. There is also the declaration of threat to the national security of that country.

You can also read: Nicaragua demands Costa Rica “Withdraw” Cuban migrants from the border

Danger for Nicaragua and the rest of the region

There is also the possibility that the opening of the border is not limited to Cubans who want to travel to the United States, it could also be to guarantee the arrival of military, paramilitary and health personnel to render their service in the event of a possible crisis.

«It could be to bring these people because Ortega is always thinking that there may be a national uproar. This is dangerous for Nicaraguans because the repression can increase. But also for Central America, because there may be a rout that may resemble Mariel’s, ”says the analyst.

The Mariel exodus was a wave of Cubans that left Puerto Mariel for the United States between April 1980 and October 1981. For the analyst, the present rigidity that exists within the area could make it engaging for an exodus of individuals with army coaching.

Also learn: Nicaragua expelled 1,917 Cubans

Reduce Cuban crossing and escape valve in protests

In 2019 it was proven that the entry of any such Cuban vacationers doesn’t encourage tourism, however reasonably is a palliative for the financial system; most of them accomplish that in casual commerce the place they don’t pay taxes. That 12 months 44,829 Cubans arrived within the nation, representing 3.5 % of all guests.

According to an evaluation carried out by Bloomberg, free entry to Nicaragua opens a brand new shortcut that may cut back the journey of Cubans making an attempt to succeed in the United States by hundreds of miles. Given the strict necessities imposed by a lot of the nations within the area, many undertake the journey in South America. But most significantly, it eliminates the danger concerned in crossing the harmful jungle often known as the Darien Gap, which connects Colombia with Panama. With this opening, the tour would solely embody Honduras, Guatemala and Mexico.

In addition, the measure takes impact at a time when after a long time below Castro’s rule, Cubans started to specific their discontent. The State responded with a bloody repression that’s driving a wave of immigration.

You can even learn: How many Cubans got here to Nicaragua in 2019? This is what the Intur statistics say

Favor your Cuban allies

According to statistics from the United States Customs and Border Protection Office, between January and October of this 12 months 39,918 Cubans have been arrested whereas making an attempt to enter that nation. The determine is greater than thrice greater than the 11,522 who tried it in the identical interval of 2020.

Sebastián Arcos, affiliate director of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University, instructed Bloomber that Ortega could possibly be providing a serving to hand to an ally affected by social unrest.

“The Cuban regime is feeling a lot of pressure from below and they need an escape valve; and Nicaragua may be offering that, a way for Cubans to have access to the United States border, ”Arcos stated.

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